FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Cardiff City 2–2 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sheffield United or draw at 69%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 31%, the draw at 26% and Sheffield United at 43%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
31%
Draw
26%
Result
Sheffield United win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sheffield United or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Cardiff's 10-point lead with four games remaining neutralizes Sheffield United's attacking threat (1.59 xG), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence forecast at 80% despite Cardiff's defensive setup."