Cardiff City and Sheffield United drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Sheffield United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Cardiff City had 28 shots (10 on target) to Sheffield United's 6 (4), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Cardiff City and Sheffield United drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Sheffield United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Cardiff City had 28 shots (10 on target) to Sheffield United's 6 (4), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 1.5.
Cardiff City 2–2 Sheffield United, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Cardiff City 31%, the draw 26% and Sheffield United 43%.
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–1.5, Shots 28–6, Shots on target 10–4, Shots inside box 21–4, Big chances 2–2, Corners 12–2, Saves 2–8, Fouls 12–11, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–2.
Yes — both Cardiff City and Sheffield United scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sheffield United or draw 69%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes.