FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Cardiff City 1–1 Stoke CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cardiff City or draw at 70%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 43%, the draw at 27% and Stoke City at 30%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
43%
Draw
27%
Result
Stoke City win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Cardiff's 10-point lead with four games remaining leaves them defending the title while Stoke sit with no live stakes, and the model's 71% forecast for Cardiff not to lose aligns with their 0.36 xG advantage."