FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 07 September 2026
Caykur Rizespor 0–1 AlanyasporMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Caykur Rizespor or draw at 76%. Bawler had Caykur Rizespor at 50%, the draw at 26% and Alanyaspor at 24%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Caykur Rizespor win
50%
Draw
26%
Alanyaspor win
24%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Caykur Rizespor or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Caykur Rizespor's 0.56 expected-goals advantage and 50% win probability underpin the Caykur Rizespor or draw forecast, suggesting the hosts avoid defeat despite Alanyaspor's visiting threat."