FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 04 October 2026

CD San José 1–0 Auriense Cented AcademyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was CD San José or draw at 71%. Bawler had CD San José at 46%, the draw at 26% and Auriense Cented Academy at 29%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

CD San José win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Auriense Cented Academy win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
CD San José or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals emerges as the high-confidence forecast at 78% due to San José's 0.43 expected-goals advantage and sharper attacking threat (1.66 xG) in this home fixture."

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