FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Celta Vigo 1–1 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 79%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 54%, the draw at 25% and Málaga at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Málaga win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celta Vigo to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 76% probability because Celta Vigo's 0.73 expected-goals advantage (1.73 vs 1.00) suggests sustained attacking pressure the visitors cannot match."