FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Cercle Brugge KSV 0–1 Lommel SKMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Cercle Brugge KSV or draw at 77%. Bawler had Cercle Brugge KSV at 54%, the draw at 24% and Lommel SK at 23%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cercle Brugge KSV win
54%
Draw
24%
Lommel SK win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Cercle Brugge KSV to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, anchored by Cercle Brugge's 0.74 expected-goals advantage and a combined xG total of 3.08 that tilts decisively toward multiple strikes."