FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Chelsea 6–3 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chelsea or draw at 73%. Bawler had Chelsea at 48%, the draw at 25% and Leeds United at 27%. The match finished 6–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chelsea win
48%
Result
Draw
25%
Leeds United win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
6 – 3
Total 9 (+6.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 6.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Chelsea or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 80% forecast because Chelsea's 0.48 expected-goals advantage and two attacking threats in Palmer (23% of team xG) and Fernández (18%) should overcome Leeds' Calvert-Lewin-led strike force in a competition where both sides average 1.51 xG combined."