FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

China 3–0 MaldivesMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

China
3–0
China win
Maldives

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was China to win at 62%. Bawler had China at 62%, the draw at 23% and Maldives at 15%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

China win
62%
Result
Draw
23%
Maldives win
15%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.0
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
China to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"China's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.01 xG edge to make a home win the high-confidence call at 60% probability."

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