FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 02 October 2026

Congo DR 0–2 UgandaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Congo DR
0–2
Uganda win
Uganda

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Congo DR to win at 68%. Bawler had Congo DR at 68%, the draw at 22% and Uganda at 10%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Congo DR win
68%
Draw
22%
Uganda win
10%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 0.6
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Congo DR to win
Pre-match: 68%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Congo DR's Home Win holds at 71% probability, built on a dominant 1.43 xG advantage that reflects their substantially superior chance-creation threat."

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