World: World CupSaturday 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC

Congo DR vUzbekistan

Most likely scoreline
01
13% of the time · 2.24 goals expected
Congo DR 27%Draw 35%Uzbekistan 38%
Strongest call
Uzbekistan or draw
76%

X2 lands at 76% because Uzbekistan's 1.24 xG edge is marginal and Congo DR's home platform keeps draw odds at 35%—a balanced midfield battle where the away side's slight attack (led by Shomurodov's 22% xG share) won't break through decisively.

How we get there
Congo DRstepUzbekistan
1.00Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.00Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.24
Most likely outcomes
Uzbekistan or draw
76%
Both teams to score
51%
Draw
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Congo DR average 3.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Uzbekistan average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
13
8
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
5
7
4
2
1
3
2
2
1
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Eldor Shomurodov
Uzbekistan · Istanbul Başakşehir
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Congo DR vs Uzbekistan — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Congo DR and Uzbekistan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Congo DR 27% · draw 35% · Uzbekistan 38%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Congo DR 31 Uzbekistan
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.