Congo DR vUzbekistan
X2 lands at 76% because Uzbekistan's 1.24 xG edge is marginal and Congo DR's home platform keeps draw odds at 35%—a balanced midfield battle where the away side's slight attack (led by Shomurodov's 22% xG share) won't break through decisively.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Congo DR average 3.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Uzbekistan average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Congo DR vs Uzbekistan — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Congo DR and Uzbekistan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Congo DR 27% · draw 35% · Uzbekistan 38%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.