How it finished
Cook Islands beat Tahiti 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Tahiti at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cook Islands 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Cook Islands vs Tahiti?
Cook Islands beat Tahiti 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Tahiti at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cook Islands 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5.
What was the final score in Cook Islands vs Tahiti?
Cook Islands 3–2 Tahiti, played on 01 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Cook Islands 29%, the draw 26% and Tahiti 45%.
Did both teams score in Cook Islands vs Tahiti?
Yes — both Cook Islands and Tahiti scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Cook Islands vs Tahiti right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Tahiti or draw 71%, it finished Cook Islands won (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.