FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Çorum FK 1–2 AlanyasporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Çorum FK or draw at 79%. Bawler had Çorum FK at 54%, the draw at 24% and Alanyaspor at 21%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Çorum FK win
54%
Draw
24%
Alanyaspor win
21%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Çorum FK to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Çorum's 0.36 expected-goals edge and 45% win probability at home point to Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast, with a combined 2.60 xG total suggesting a two-goal threshold is breached in seven of ten simulations."