FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Coventry City 0–5 Brighton & Hove AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brighton & Hove Albion or draw at 73%. Bawler had Coventry City at 27%, the draw at 25% and Brighton & Hove Albion at 49%. The match finished 0–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Coventry City win
27%
Draw
25%
Brighton & Hove Albion win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.8
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Brighton's attacking edge—0.51 xG ahead and 49% win probability—makes Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence forecast at 81%, with Welbeck's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of their expected output."