FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich TownMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace to win at 64%. Bawler had Crystal Palace at 64%, the draw at 21% and Ipswich Town at 15%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Crystal Palace win
64%
Draw
21%
Ipswich Town win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Crystal Palace to win
Pre-match: 64%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Crystal Palace's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.19 xG advantage, with striker Mateta commanding 30% of their attacking output against an Ipswich side generating just 0.95 expected goals."