> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 16:00 UTC
Czechia vs South Africa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals at 69% is the play here—combined xG of 2.41 and Czechia's 1.32 edge at home project a low-scoring but open fixture where at least two goals land.
Win probability
38.7% home33.7% draw27.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
CzechiastepSouth Africa
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.08
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
9
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5
2
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1
12
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7
3
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1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Czechia 1–1 South Africa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+