FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
D.C. United 0–0 LAFCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC or draw at 73%. Bawler had D.C. United at 27%, the draw at 26% and LAFC at 46%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
D.C. United win
27%
Draw
26%
Result
LAFC win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.6
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
LAFC or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 76%, backed by LAFC's 0.43 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.74 that points to an open, attacking contest."