FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Derby County 1–2 Birmingham CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026

Derby County
1–2
Birmingham City win
Birmingham City

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 67%. Bawler had Derby County at 39%, the draw at 28% and Birmingham City at 33%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Derby County win
39%
Draw
28%
Birmingham City win
33%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 3.1
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Derby County or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Derby County's home advantage tilts the forecast toward Derby County or draw (67% combined win or draw probability), as both sides project nearly identical attacking threat with xG figures separated by just 0.12."

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