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Derby

FormLLLDD
69%
Our hit rate on DER
13
Forecasts settled

Fixture run · next 3

Colour = model difficulty for Derby
QPR (A)
14 Oct
STO (H)
17 Oct
SHE (A)
24 Oct

This season · per game

Bar = vs Championship average · 10 matches since 1 Jul 2026
11.4lge avg 13.4
Shots per game
3.7lge avg 4.3
Shots on target per game
0.9lge avg 1.4
Goals scored per game
1.7lge avg 1.4
Goals conceded per game
0.8lge avg 1.3
xG for per game
1.7lge avg 1.3
xG against per game
5.4lge avg 5.2
Corners per game
Next fixture · Wed 14 Oct 19:45
QPRvsDerbyDerby
High confidence · Over 1.5 goals75%
Derby win28%
Draw27%
QPR win45%
Most likely score1-1 · 12%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Both teams to scoreYes · 54%
Locked ~17:00 UK, before kickoffFull match preview →
Our record on Derby · settled in publicFull track record →
10 OctDerby v WrexhamDerby or draw69%WON
19 SeptBurnley v DerbyOver 1.5 goals78%WON
12 SeptDerby v BirminghamDerby or draw67%LOST
9 SeptDerby v West BromDerby or draw67%LOST
DerbyDerby· continues from the hero above56 competitive matches · friendlies excluded · updated daily

Form · last 6

Newest first · click a tile for the settled forecast
DRAW1–1vs Wrexham10 OctDRAW1–1@ Burnley19 SeptLOSS1–2vs Birmingham12 SeptLOSS0–1vs West Brom9 SeptLOSS0–3@ West Ham5 SeptWIN2–0@ Portsmouth1 Sept
At home · per gameThey produceThey allow
Goals1.21.3
Shots11.911.8
On target3.73.9
Corners5.74.6
Away · per gameThey produceThey allow
Goals1.51.4
Shots10.114.5
On target3.54.9
Corners3.76.4
At home · per game · 1st halfThey produceThey allow
Goals0.60.7
Shots5.05.4
On target1.71.9
Corners2.52.1
28 of the 29 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.
Away · per game · 1st halfThey produceThey allow
Goals0.70.5
Shots4.46.8
On target1.52.1
Corners1.73.0
All 27 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.
At home · per game · 2nd halfThey produceThey allow
Goals0.60.6
Shots7.16.4
On target2.02.1
Corners3.22.5
28 of the 29 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.
Away · per game · 2nd halfThey produceThey allow
Goals0.70.9
Shots5.67.7
On target2.02.8
Corners2.03.4
All 27 matches counted carry a half-by-half breakdown.

Squad · 30 players

Coach John Eustace · from FotMob, 8 Oct 2026
Goalkeepers
Nicholas Bilokapić24 · AUS
1Sam Kane20 · SCO
12Richard O'Donnell38 · ENG
31Josh Vickers30 · ENG
Defenders
2Derry Murkin27 · ENG
3Craig Forsyth37 · SCO
5Matthew Clarke30 · ENG
18Charlie Taylor33 · ENG
+5 more
22Max Johnston22 · SCO
23Joe Ward31 · ENG
24Ryan Nyambe28 · NAM
28Dion Sanderson26 · ENG
44Eiran Cashin24 · IRL
Midfielders
4David Ozoh21 · ENG
8Bobby Clark21 · ENG
11Sammie Szmodics31 · IRL
13Filip Bilbija26 · GER
20Alex Mowatt31 · ENG
+3 more
26Ryan Hedges31 · WAL
27Lewis Travis28 · ENG
29Oscar Fraulo22 · DEN
Forwards
7Patrick Agyemang25 · USA
9Carlton Morris30 · ENG
10Rhian Brewster26 · ENG
15Lars-Jørgen Salvesen30 · NOR
16Mohammed Fuseini24 · GHA
+2 more
19Henrik Meister22 · DEN
33Corey Blackett-Taylor29 · ENG

Transfer desk · this window

All 20 moves →
OUTKenzo GoudmijnAM · to GrasshopperLoan8 Sept
INNicholas BilokapićGK · from Peterborough UnitedUndisclosed4 Sept
OUTOwen EamesAM · to FalkirkLoan3 Sept
INDavid OzohDM · from Crystal Palace€4.7m2 Sept
INMohammed FuseiniST · from Union St.GilloiseLoan1 Sept

Common questions

Who do Derby play next?

Derby play QPR away on Wed 14 Oct 19:45 UK. The published call is over 1.5 goals, at 75%. Read the full match preview

What is the model's Derby v QPR call?

High confidence: Over 1.5 goals, at 75%. The forecast is published and locked at about 17:00 UK, usually around two days before kickoff, so it can be graded afterwards. See every market for this fixture

How accurate has Bawler been on Derby?

9 of 13 settled Derby forecasts were right (69%). Every one was published before kickoff and graded in public. See the full track record

What are Derby averaging this season?

11.4 shots and 0.9 goals a game, conceding 1.7, counted over 10 competitive matches (since 1 Jul 2026) with friendlies excluded — every one a counted match result, not a projection. Compare it with the rest of the league

Who have Derby signed and sold?

20 confirmed moves in the current window. The newest in: Nicholas Bilokapić, David Ozoh, Mohammed Fuseini. The newest out: Kenzo Goudmijn, Owen Eames. Follow the transfer desk

The Derby fixtures after that

Win, draw and loss are Derby's own chances
DateFixtureWinDrawLossO/U 2.5BTTSStrongest call
Sat 17 Octvs Stoke47%27%26%Over 50%Yes 53%Both teams to score 53%
Sat 24 Oct@ Sheffield United26%26%49%Over 54%Yes 56%Both teams to score 56%

Championship table

FotMob, 13 Oct 2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAGDPts
1Swansea962115-7+820
2Middlesbrough953117-12+518
3West Ham944123-12+1116
4Stoke951315-13+216
5Wolves842215-11+414
6QPR935111-8+314
7Birmingham935113-11+214
8Millwall942316-15+114
9West Brom942310-9+114
10Bristol City942312-13-114
11Southampton952220-10+1013
12Charlton93428-11-313
13Blackburn933314-13+112
14Sheff Utd933312-11+112
15Wrexham925210-13-311
16Lincoln93247-11-411
17Bolton931512-17-510
18Norwich930617-19-29
19Portsmouth82249-11-28
20Watford92257-14-78
21Cardiff914411-14-37
22Burnley914413-17-47
23Derby91358-15-76
24Preston91178-16-84