FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 21 September 2026

Dominica 1–0 AnguillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 21 September 2026

Dominica
1–0
Dominica win
Anguilla

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Dominica or draw at 73%. Bawler had Dominica at 47%, the draw at 26% and Anguilla at 27%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Dominica win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Anguilla win
27%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Dominica or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Dominica's 0.45 expected-goals edge and home advantage fuel a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, with both sides generating enough attacking threat to breach the two-goal threshold."

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