FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Doncaster Rovers 1–3 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 70%. Bawler had Doncaster Rovers at 30%, the draw at 27% and Middlesbrough at 43%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Doncaster Rovers win
30%
Draw
27%
Middlesbrough win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.