How it finished
South Africa beat Egypt 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Egypt at 58% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave South Africa 16%. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Egypt had 19 shots (6 on target) to South Africa's 7 (3), with 61% of the ball against 39%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.8, so Egypt created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 65%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Egypt vs South Africa?
South Africa beat Egypt 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Egypt at 58% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave South Africa 16%. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Egypt had 19 shots (6 on target) to South Africa's 7 (3), with 61% of the ball against 39%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 0.8, so Egypt created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Egypt vs South Africa?
Egypt 0–1 South Africa, played on 04 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Egypt 58%, the draw 26% and South Africa 16%.
What were the stats in Egypt vs South Africa?
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.8, Shots 19–7, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 12–2, Big chances 1–1, Corners 8–1, Saves 2–6, Fouls 8–10, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 2–4.
Did both teams score in Egypt vs South Africa?
No. It finished 0–1, so Egypt failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 41% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Egypt vs South Africa right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Egypt or draw 84%, it finished South Africa won (16% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 41%, it finished No.