FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Egypt 0–1 South AfricaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Egypt
0–1
South Africa win
South Africa

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Egypt or draw at 84%. Bawler had Egypt at 58%, the draw at 26% and South Africa at 16%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Egypt win
58%
Draw
26%
South Africa win
16%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 0.7
Total 2.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Egypt or draw
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Egypt's home advantage and 0.88 xG edge underpin the Egypt or draw forecast at 84%, with Salah controlling a third of their attacking output against a South African side managing just 0.73 expected goals."

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