FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC AugsburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Eintracht Frankfurt or draw at 72%. Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 48%, the draw at 24% and FC Augsburg at 28%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Eintracht Frankfurt win
48%
Draw
24%
FC Augsburg win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Eintracht Frankfurt or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Frankfurt's hunt for European qualification clashes with Augsburg's comfortable mid-table position, setting up a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast (83%) as Marmoush and the hosts' 1.88 xG edge should break through the 1.35 xG resistance."