FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Estonia 1–0 LuxembourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Estonia
1–0
Estonia win
Luxembourg

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Estonia or draw at 67%. Bawler had Estonia at 37%, the draw at 30% and Luxembourg at 33%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Estonia win
37%
Result
Draw
30%
Luxembourg win
33%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.1
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Estonia or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Estonia's home advantage edges a narrow xG gap to make Estonia or draw (draw or home win) the model's 67% call, with both sides projected at under 1.2 expected goals each."

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