How it finished
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0. Bawler's model had Estonia in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Estonia had 14 shots (9 on target) to Luxembourg's 8 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 64%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia beat Luxembourg 1–0. Bawler's model had Estonia in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.3 goals; only 1 was scored. Estonia had 14 shots (9 on target) to Luxembourg's 8 (2), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.5.
What was the final score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg, played on 03 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Estonia 37%, the draw 30% and Luxembourg 33%.
What were the stats in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.5, Shots 14–8, Shots on target 9–2, Shots inside box 10–4, Big chances 2–0, Corners 7–3, Saves 2–8, Fouls 13–12, Offsides 4–2, Yellow cards 3–6.
Did both teams score in Estonia vs Luxembourg?
No. It finished 1–0, so Luxembourg failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 46% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Estonia vs Luxembourg right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Estonia or draw 67%, it finished Estonia won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.3, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 46%, it finished No.