FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Excelsior 1–2 FC UtrechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht or draw at 63%. Bawler had Excelsior at 37%, the draw at 26% and FC Utrecht at 38%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
37%
Draw
26%
FC Utrecht win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because Excelsior and Utrecht's combined expected goals (3.01) suggest a match that transcends the tight 37%-38% win-probability split."