FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Faroe Islands 1–1 KazakhstanMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Faroe Islands or draw at 83%. Bawler had Faroe Islands at 58%, the draw at 25% and Kazakhstan at 17%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Faroe Islands win
58%
Draw
25%
Result
Kazakhstan win
17%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 0.8
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Faroe Islands or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Faroe Islands' home-field dominance emerges in the xG gap—a 0.99 edge that powers the Home Win forecast to 60%, making it the model's high-confidence call."

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