FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Cincinnati 3–3 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cincinnati or draw at 69%. Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 45%, the draw at 24% and Charlotte FC at 31%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cincinnati win
45%
Draw
24%
Result
Charlotte FC win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 85%, driven by Cincinnati's 1.86 xG and a 0.34 expected-goal advantage anchored by creator Evander's 26% of team chance-building."