FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
FC Cologne 3–2 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cologne or draw at 69%. Bawler had FC Cologne at 45%, the draw at 25% and TSG Hoffenheim at 31%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cologne win
45%
Result
Draw
25%
TSG Hoffenheim win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hoffenheim defends a European spot with nothing to gain from an away trip to mid-table Cologne, yet xG suggests an even contest (1.74 vs 1.46), making Over 1.5 Goals the high-confidence call at 83%."