FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
FC Dallas 1–0 LAFCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC or draw at 63%. Bawler had FC Dallas at 37%, the draw at 26% and LAFC at 37%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Dallas win
37%
Result
Draw
26%
LAFC win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% with both sides generating nearly identical expected goals (Dallas 1.44, LAFC 1.45), signaling an even, open contest where multiple goals are the likeliest outcome."