FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Dallas 2–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Dallas or draw at 75%. Bawler had FC Dallas at 51%, the draw at 24% and Portland Timbers at 25%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Dallas win
51%
Result
Draw
24%
Portland Timbers win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
FC Dallas to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, as Dallas's 0.62 xG edge and 3.05 combined expected goals suggest a match tilted toward open play and multiple scoring chances."