FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Friday, 04 September 2026
FC Porto 2–1 MoreirenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto to win at 76%. Bawler had FC Porto at 76%, the draw at 17% and Moreirense at 7%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
76%
Result
Draw
17%
Moreirense win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.6
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto to win
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Porto's 1.76 expected-goals advantage and 76% win forecast reflect a dominant home setup where striker Samu Aghehowa controls nearly a third of their attacking threat against an outmatched visitor."