FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
FC Thun 2–2 Lech PoznanMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lech Poznan or draw at 71%. Bawler had FC Thun at 29%, the draw at 24% and Lech Poznan at 47%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Thun win
29%
Draw
24%
Result
Lech Poznan win
47%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.9
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Lech Poznan or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, anchored by Lech Poznan's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined expected-goal total of 3.28 that favors an open, multi-goal contest."