Bawler / EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification / Lech Poznan
Team profile

Lech Poznan Prediction

Per-game numbers from 14 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.4
a game
12.4 faced
On target
6.4
a game
2.9 faced
Goals
2.1 – 0.9
scored – conceded
a game, 14 matches
Corners
4.6
a game
3.8 against

Lech Poznan prediction: Bawler's model rates Lech Poznan at 1.10 expected goals scored and 1.46 conceded per match across 3 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 33% of the time. They are unbeaten across their last 3 settled matches. No Lech Poznan fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Lech Poznan play open, high-scoring football — 1.10 expected goals created per game, but 1.46 conceded, both above the Europa League - Qualification average. Form is with them: 3 straight wins. Across 3 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Lech Poznan have been correct 33% of the time.

Lech Poznan in numbers

14 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.1
Goals · per game
let in 0.9
Home 1.9Away 2.3
4.6
Corners · per game
give up 3.8
Home 3.4Away 5.9
16.4
Shots · per game
faced 12.4
Home 15.3Away 17.4
6.4
On target · per game
faced 2.9
Home 5.9Away 7.0
Last 6 games
13 Aug
5-0
@ KI Klaksvik
9-4
09 Aug
3-0
vs Piast Gliwice
6-3
06 Aug
1-0
vs KI Klaksvik
5-4
01 Aug
2-1
@ Wieczysta Krakow
7-4
19 Mar
2-1
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
5-4
12 Mar
1-3
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
0-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Lech Poznan compare with the EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification average, per match.

Goals for
1.10
Above average
Goals against
1.46
Leakier than most
Record
3W 0D 0L
3 settled
Real goals
2.7 – 0.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.10
Conceded1.46

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification average (0.08 scored, 0.10 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.10 xG per match · +1.02 above the EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification average of 0.08.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.46 xG per match · +1.36 vs league average of 0.10.
Tough market: Result
Lech Poznan matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

Recent matches (last 3)

Transfer activity

INLuis PalmaLWfrom Celtic€4m
INTerry YegbeCBfrom Metz€3m
INAllahyar SayyadmaneshRWfrom WesterloFree transfer
INMateusz LisGKfrom Göztepe€1m
INGustav BerggrenCMfrom Red Bull New York€500k
OUTGísli ThórdarsonDMto St. PauliLoan
OUTKornel LismanLMto VeneziaFree transfer
OUTSammy Dudekto Unia Solec KujawskiLoan
OUTFilip SzymczakLWto Zagłębie LubinUndisclosed
OUTBartlomiej BaranskiAMto OdraLoan
OUTIan HoffmannRBto MjällbyLoan
OUTAntonio MilicCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTTymoteusz Gmurto Stal MielecLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lech Poznan and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly