FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 12 September 2026
FC Twente 2–0 ADO Den HaagMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 80%. Bawler had FC Twente at 80%, the draw at 13% and ADO Den Haag at 7%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
80%
Result
Draw
13%
ADO Den Haag win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.9 – 0.8
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Twente's 2.13 expected-goal advantage and 80% win probability make a home victory the model's clear call against a visitor managing just 0.76 xG."