FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Feyenoord Rotterdam to win at 70%. Bawler had Feyenoord Rotterdam at 70%, the draw at 20% and Go Ahead Eagles at 10%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
70%
Draw
20%
Result
Go Ahead Eagles win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.9
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win
Pre-match: 88%
Missed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Feyenoord's home win stands at 70% probability, built on a dominant 1.63 expected-goals advantage led by striker Santiago Giménez's creative pull in the attack."