FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam 2–2 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Feyenoord Rotterdam at 70%, draw at 20%, Go Ahead Eagles at 10%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Feyenoord Rotterdam to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rotterdam win
70%
Draw
20%
Actual ✓
Eagles win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.51 – 0.88
Total 3.39
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 88%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Feyenoord's home win stands at 70% probability, built on a dominant 1.63 expected-goals advantage led by striker Santiago Giménez's creative pull in the attack."