FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Fiji 2–1 New CaledoniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Fiji
2–1
Fiji win
New Caledonia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Fiji or draw at 64%. Bawler had Fiji at 39%, the draw at 25% and New Caledonia at 36%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Fiji win
39%
Result
Draw
25%
New Caledonia win
36%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% as Fiji's 1.54 xG and New Caledonia's 1.48 xG combine for an attacking balance that edges toward a multi-goal affair."

More from Bawler