FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Fiji 2–0 Papua New GuineaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Papua New Guinea or draw at 74%. Bawler had Fiji at 26%, the draw at 24% and Papua New Guinea at 50%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Fiji win
26%
Result
Draw
24%
Papua New Guinea win
50%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.9
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Papua New Guinea to win
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 83%, driven by Papua New Guinea's 0.55 xG advantage and combined expected output of 3.20 goals."

More from Bawler