FT · World: International Friendly · Friday, 18 September 2026

Fiji 3–3 Solomon IslandsMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Fiji to win at 67%. Bawler had Fiji at 67%, the draw at 16% and Solomon Islands at 16%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Fiji win
67%
Draw
16%
Result
Solomon Islands win
16%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.0 – 1.5
Total 4.5
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+1.5 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Fiji to win
Pre-match: 67%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Fiji's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.19 xG edge to make a home win the model's 62% forecast."

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