FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 21 September 2026

Fiji 0–1 VanuatuMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 21 September 2026

Fiji
0–1
Vanuatu win
Vanuatu

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Fiji to win at 77%. Bawler had Fiji at 77%, the draw at 15% and Vanuatu at 8%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Fiji win
77%
Draw
15%
Vanuatu win
8%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.7 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Fiji to win
Pre-match: 77%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Fiji's home advantage and dominant 1.83 expected-goal edge drive a Home Win forecast at 76% probability, with the hosts projected to create nearly 3.4 times the attacking threat of their visitors."

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