How it finished
Vanuatu beat Fiji 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Fiji at 77% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Vanuatu 8%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Fiji had 7 shots (7 on target) to Vanuatu's 11 (11), with 42% of the ball against 58%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 78%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Fiji vs Vanuatu?
Vanuatu beat Fiji 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Fiji at 77% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Vanuatu 8%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 1 was scored. Fiji had 7 shots (7 on target) to Vanuatu's 11 (11), with 42% of the ball against 58%.
What was the final score in Fiji vs Vanuatu?
Fiji 0–1 Vanuatu, played on 21 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Fiji 77%, the draw 15% and Vanuatu 8%.
What were the stats in Fiji vs Vanuatu?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Shots 7–11, Shots on target 7–11, Corners 3–6.
Did both teams score in Fiji vs Vanuatu?
No. It finished 0–1, so Fiji failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Fiji vs Vanuatu right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Fiji to win 77%, it finished Vanuatu won (8% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished No.