FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Finland 0–0 BelarusMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Finland or draw at 79%. Bawler had Finland at 57%, the draw at 22% and Belarus at 21%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Finland win
57%
Draw
22%
Result
Belarus win
21%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.2 – 1.3
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 3.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Finland's home advantage combines with a 1.07 expected-goals edge to make the home win the model's 61% call."

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