FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fiorentina 1–2 TorinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fiorentina or draw at 76%. Bawler had Fiorentina at 51%, the draw at 25% and Torino at 24%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
51%
Draw
25%
Torino win
24%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Fiorentina to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Fiorentina's 0.61 expected-goals edge and Moise Kean's involvement in over a quarter of team chances drive the model's high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 79%."