FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Fleetwood Town 1–0 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fleetwood Town or draw at 64%. Bawler had Fleetwood Town at 38%, the draw at 26% and Sheffield United at 36%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fleetwood Town win
38%
Result
Draw
26%
Sheffield United win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 79%, supported by nearly matched attacking output—Fleetwood's 1.49 xG and Sheffield United's 1.45 xG combine for a 2.94 total that leans toward a multi-goal contest."