FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam or draw at 74%. Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 26%, the draw at 24% and Ajax Amsterdam at 50%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fortuna Sittard win
26%
Draw
24%
Ajax Amsterdam win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 4.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals leads at 82% confidence because Ajax's 1.85 expected goals and Fortuna's 1.28 combine for a 3.14 xG total that favors a multi-goal contest."