FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Frosinone 3–2 VeneziaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Frosinone or draw at 66%. Bawler had Frosinone at 39%, the draw at 28% and Venezia at 34%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Frosinone win
39%
Result
Draw
28%
Venezia win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because Frosinone's 1.38 xG and Venezia's 1.27 xG combine for a 2.65-goal expectation that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal outcome."