FT · TURKEY: Super Lig · Friday, 28 August 2026
Genclerbirligi 1–1 Erzurum BBMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Genclerbirligi or draw at 67%. Bawler had Genclerbirligi at 40%, the draw at 27% and Erzurum BB at 33%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genclerbirligi win
40%
Draw
27%
Result
Erzurum BB win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.