FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Genclerbirligi 1–2 KasimpasaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Genclerbirligi or draw at 70%. Bawler had Genclerbirligi at 42%, the draw at 29% and Kasimpasa at 30%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genclerbirligi win
42%
Draw
29%
Kasimpasa win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides combine for just 2.46 expected goals—a thin total that favors multiple scoring chances over a shutout scenario."