FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Genoa 1–1 FrosinoneMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Genoa or draw at 72%. Bawler had Genoa at 45%, the draw at 27% and Frosinone at 28%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
45%
Draw
27%
Result
Frosinone win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 74%, backed by Genoa's 1.50 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 2.63 goals."